cjb

I'm afraid so. Hard times are ahead for all, and some will be hit harder than others.

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-- Chris
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The Devil may care, but I don't mind.

daiking

Unfortunately, I think PFI is going to make privatisation look like a great deal for the British public. The clock is ticking on that one.

Remember what a trade surplus was? I can't say I do. Deficit all the way from now on. Maggie & co may have wasted 18 years of North Sea Oil but you would have thought Tony would have done something about it running out in the 10 years he had. Instead we're facing the mother of all trade deficits on oil and gas alone over the next 10 years if prices do not fall a long, long way.

We will indeed be very poor, a banana republic sans bananas

cheezemonkhai

Keep global warming, then we can grow bananas

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Cars make CO2 and trees absorb CO2. By driving your car you're feeding a tree and helping the environment.

daiking

I spy with my little eye, an investment opportunity

cheezemonkhai

Careful, I bet gordo has already seen that one and the price of CO2 and bananas is going through the roof.

Hmm wonder if we can get the speculators to buy into that one

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Cars make CO2 and trees absorb CO2. By driving your car you're feeding a tree and helping the environment.

daiking

Keep your eyes peeled, you wouldn't want to slip-up on a chance like that.

cheezemonkhai

I hear bananas are going to be the next big thing. Low price now, but if you can get good futures on them you are in for a massive profit. I mean the world is going to sh*t and everybody knows you can't run a banana republic without them.*




















*Unless you are Zimbabwe, then you can do what you like without anything and the world doesn't seem to care

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Cars make CO2 and trees absorb CO2. By driving your car you're feeding a tree and helping the environment.

gadgetman

Just dont waste your banana's.

Cant have the price rising because you let one go to waste...

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Lick the window of life

Why not join the Briskoda Last.fm group?

monkeychild

Britain gives Pakistan £1bn to fight extremism - Times Online
Grrrrrrrrrrrrrr

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My Brum Brums: 2002 Silver MKI Octy vRS standard apart from an APR R1 DV 2002 1.4 Tdi Polo
My Pedal Pedals: 2008 Gary Fisher Hookooekoo, 2008 Genesis io Singlespeed 2003 Kona Lavadome Single speed goodness

cheezemonkhai

Yeah but it's ok because you give aid when your economy is running well and you are generating a surplus....

Oh hang on, f**k.

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Cars make CO2 and trees absorb CO2. By driving your car you're feeding a tree and helping the environment.

Conshine

Just renewed our Mortgage and the payments went up by £60/month, so not as bad as we were expecting, so it's manageable.

I do feel sorry for people who got their Mortgages before us and are now seeing a £200 increase.

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Ben

Stuart_J

With houses its not all doom & gloom

1.The UK needs more houses as the population is rapidly growing so builders will eventually have more work, be it private or through housing associations

2.Costs of building materials are rocketing up so soon rising build costs will meet falling prices & no one will plan to build at less than cost .

3. In some areas theres already a shortage of rental properties

4. Credit has to ease, if it dosent large area of the world economy will stagnate so the Governments will help that happen

All the above will have a bearing on when house prices reach their natural level dictated by supply & demand in the market

Personaly I think house prices will have stabilised by next Easter if not sooner & once that happens the bargains will be gone. At the moment its a buyers market, if you are looking to buy & are in the position to move quickly just go round the big builders & offer 30% less, some are getting lucky. Certainly Barratts need about a billion quickly to fund the debt of buying Wilson homes & paying far to much which means they need to shift 4000 units now. If any of the big builders fold you will see large investors buying up hundreds of properties at knock down prices.

I think the thing to watch will be the steady decline of the pound against the Euro etc. Whatever happens our standard of living compared with many other nations will continue to fall as Labour have totally trashed this countries finances

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Speed is an addiction for which thankfully there is no cure

daiking

I disagree on all 4 of your main points We'll see who's right next Easter.

But in relation to the last statement, if the currency is being trashed, why would you commit yourself to a 20+yr debt in that currency?

Stuart_J

So are you saying

1. We have too many houses for the population which isnt growing

2. Material costs arent rising

3. In some areas there arent a shortage of properties ( I know a private landlord who has people outbidding each other to get 2 of his properties & the longest waiting list hes had in years.

4. Credit can remain ridiculously tight & we will all be Ok

Whatever & whoever is right its fairly uncharted territory as nothing like this has happened before, the only sure thing is those with cash waiting in the wings who get the timing right will do very nicely.

Oil dropped $9 a barrel yesterday, demand in the states & Europe is falling, has oil found its level ?? will it drop more ?? Its all a lottery at the moment

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Speed is an addiction for which thankfully there is no cure

daiking

1.The UK needs more houses as the population is rapidly growing so builders will eventually have more work, be it private or through housing associations

How is the population growing rapidly? Unemployed single teenage mothers having sprogs? Economic migrants? What do you think will happen as the UK economy slows? Go home? Stay and claim benefits? Go to countries like Germany when they allow Poles to work there? Uk demand will be for cheap houses not the woldly over-priced ones we have at the moment.

2.Costs of building materials are rocketing up so soon rising build costs will meet falling prices & no one will plan to build at less than cost .

Prices can fall to less than cost price and then they won’t build. Land prices have a lot further to fall before your scenario plays out though.

3. In some areas theres already a shortage of rental properties

Where are all the homeless? Don’t see thousands of homeless. Lots of people already own and lots of people already rent. Where is the shortage?

4. Credit has to ease, if it dosent large area of the world economy will stagnate so the Governments will help that happen

Like this gubbermint or any other can achieve that. How’s Japan been for the last 20 years? Those pesky japs just weren’t trying hard enough

BBC NEWS | Business | 'Overwork' kills Toyota employee

cheezemonkhai

To be fair there are people bidding on the same houses, but there are plenty of houses out there.

In my experience it's just that you get more people trying to get the nice houses as there is a lot of stuff out there that is, shall we say "student grade".

Certainly around my way there are huge amounts of people trying to rent out a room and huge numbers of properties on the rental list too.

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Cars make CO2 and trees absorb CO2. By driving your car you're feeding a tree and helping the environment.

Stuart_J

Re housing shortage,

population prediction here
National Statistics Online

1.6 Million on council house waiting lists as of Nov last year & predicted to rise
Council house waiting lists 'could soar to two million' » Housing » 24dash.com

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Speed is an addiction for which thankfully there is no cure

daiking

Are these the same Stattos who predicted that only 17 polish plumbers would come to the UK following European accession? Is projection that sustainable? Local services and infrastructure etc? I'd like to see that projection after 4 years of negative growth. The lowering in standards of living you claim also mean that when these people want somewhere to live, they wll be crammed into smaller properties, inner city flats etc. No sleeping on the streets = no accomodation shortage

Council House waiting lists - do these people currently have any accomodation? Are they sleeping on the streets? No they are people who cannot afford to rent/buy at makret rates. Doesn't mean there is a shortage of housing. There's a shortage of affordable housing. People who don't have money and can't get credit relying on the local authorities to help them out. Except they will no longer be able to borrow the amounts required. The numbers won't add up. Your evidence actually help my case. A huge number of people can't afford to buy or rent, therefore prices must come down, not sit still for 9 months till next Easter.

You've also not answered my question. If, as you say, Labour have ruined our finances, we'll all get a reduced standard of living, and the pound will fall further, why on earth would you want to handcuff yourself to a massive debt in such a rubbish currency?

Stuart_J

Population etc, I agree many predictions are wrong but the vast majority point to increasing population & increasing demand for roofs over heads be it social or privately owned. If people stop buying then they will have to rent, if more want to rent then rental property becomes in more demand, rents rise & landlords buy from the private sector to fill that demand & house prices rise. Once rents rise people look at buying again, its a big version of Monopoly

House prices are & will fall, I never said they would stay as they are. They are all grosely overvalued, theres no arguing that point, I wouldnt be suprised if it was 20%. My point was more about when they find their level & some sort of market stability can return. Flats & apartments where numbers are too excessive will take longer to find a level & may suffer greater losses, many ditched pensions & went for buy to let flats & paid way over the odds for them even in a bullish market. I still feel that we will have a very good idea by next Easter where values will end up.

Banks make money by lending so at some point they need to start lending greater amounts again & as they do so competition will return however the days of "how much do you want to borrow" are gone & not before time.

I would be suprised to see 4 years negative growth but agree negative growth is probably already with us despite what the governments present figures are trying to say.

As to your last point. Most people buy in pounds, earn in pounds, sell in pounds. If the currency falls it all remains relative but Mr average knows where he is. If you took your mortgage in dollars a few years ago you are laughing, In Euros & you are crying.
If you have monies to invest & know the world economies then playing the world economy will be very rewarding but also risky if your not on the ball.

I still think there are bargains to be had in housing, big builders have to turn assets into cash & very quickly hence my earlier bid 30% off comment but avoid flats & apartments, go for "family homes" in good areas. The Government are now allowing local authorities to provide social housing on the same footing as housing associations. Some are planning new builds but I can possibly see the government suggesting their monies being directed to take some of the slack out of the market by buying up stock & helping to bring a bit of stability to the market.

We are in for rocky times theres no doubting that & its going to get worse but having worked through the last recession it has a very long way to go before it gets that bad.

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Speed is an addiction for which thankfully there is no cure

daiking

Typically, these 'events' take place over a number of years. It is a long grinding path down to the bottom and I would be surprised if that bottom was reached by next spring. Although, to be fair, the pace of the current downturn is already surprising many. If you are right in choosing spring 2009 then I think you will be surprised by the drop. The 20% you mention in the space of 18 months is unprecedented but looking possible. I've genuinely no idea where nominal price falls (the pounds you pay) will end up but expect it to be in the region of 35%+. I imagine that real prices (adjusted for inflation) will easily fall 50%+ over 5 or so years.

Don't be fooled by the media into thinking only inner city flats will fall. The housing market only works when people join at the bottom (look at current transaction figures for a clue to current problems). If a 2 bed flat is down to £50K and a 2 bed house is still £100K. First time buyers will buy the flats. The houses will need to come down to £60K to compete. 3 bed house will need so fall in relation to that and so the reductions will travel up the chain.

We all know the banks need to lend to make money but giving it to anyone who could lie has proved the wrong strategy. Most of the banks have lost 50-60% of their share value over the past 12 months, even ignoring the basket cases of Northern Rock and Bradford and Bingley. They will lend but they'll lend sensible amounts, to sensible borrowers and rates will stay higher than they have been. We're lagging the US by a time but we'll soon get told about the UK sub-prime problem. People make the mistake of saying that houseprices cannot fall whilst the economy is strong and employment is high. However if you look back, houseprices are a leading indicator to recession. Current falling prices are a sign that recession is coming very soon.

I would agree that the layman is not interested in speculating on forex, he accumulates and spends only pounds sterling. However you've failed to acknowledge that we import food/energy/goods and this is where the common man is exposed to variations in currency. Spending more pounds on essentials will leave less money for repaying debt. North Sea Oil and Gas is winding down and the current, rather large, trade deficit is set to balloon. What will stop our economy going the way of the historical spain/italy/greece? Comedy currency and cheap for tourists?

TaviaRS

The Russians purportedly are extracting oil from 40,283 foot deep wells. It was written that no biological matter is found deeper than 18,000 feet. That oil is coming from somewhere else.

It could be that tectonics have dragged that oil down in the distant past, but still, is there biologic matter down there too, I wonder.

Theres also a "dry" well in mexico that just replenished itself, so they reckon oil might be abiogenic and not biogenic

Have a read Rob, Sustainable oil?

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A jolly sensible Mercedes E class saloon in a rather fetching bluey grey colour. No it isn't fast, no it isn't modded, and yes, it will still eat your Fabia for breakfast.

Official mobile chicane for Briskoda trackdays

Stuart_J

Re prices all will fall, I just believe flats & appartments will fall a lot further & remain flat for many years.

Lending I agree, sensible lending will return like the good old days & those with reosnable deposits & little other debt will be rewarded & rightly so

Prices may well fall further than 20% including inflation but the common man only sees the actual figure. Once that stabilises he will feel better. Our pad was 180K 11 years ago, last year it was 600, same house, same plot etc & relative to other properties generally no different percentage wise.

Comodity prices are all rising & thats a global problem, Its going to hit the dream economies like China as well, they are funded on selling cheap exports, costs of these are rising & western demand for the products are going to fall, upward wage pressures are starting to apear in some sectors of their economies. This could slow or even reverse some raw material costs.

We are all in uncharted territory & I agree rocky times are here for all & it will be interesting looing back in ten years to see who was right. I just hope my guarded optimism wins & your more severe predictions whilst possible prove unfounded. We also need a proactive government rather than the present "dont do anything in case it makes it worse" attitude

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Speed is an addiction for which thankfully there is no cure

daiking

Today's telegraph



Well its not going to a repeat of the 80s/90s. Any bids for the 70s or 30s?